Investing In Namibia

Namibia’s Offshore Oil Boom: Challenges, Discoveries, and Future Prospects

Namibia’s offshore oil sector faces mixed results, with major discoveries like Venus offset by write-downs and dry wells. What does the future hold for Namibia’s oil industry? Read the latest insights here.

The offshore oil sector in Namibia has been a focal point of global energy discussions in recent years. Major players like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Chevron have invested heavily in exploration, hoping to tap into what was initially believed to be one of Africa’s largest untapped oil reserves. However, recent drilling results, financial write-downs, and revised reserve estimates have introduced uncertainties. This blog post delves deep into Namibia’s evolving oil landscape, the latest exploration updates, and what the future holds for the country’s offshore oil potential.

Shell’s $400 Million Write-Down: A Setback or Just Accounting?

Shell’s recent $400 million write-down in Namibia has raised eyebrows across the industry. Initially, the company estimated a 2 billion barrel reserve in its Graff field, but by early 2024, the government’s petroleum commissioner scaled down the estimate to just 200 million barrels—a staggering 90% reduction.

Key Takeaways from Shell’s Write-Down

• Not the End of the Road – Shell has not declared the Graff field unviable. The write-down is largely an accounting measure rather than an indication that exploration is over.
• Market Perception vs. Reality – While the adjustment may impact investor confidence, Shell’s continued presence suggests they see potential in Namibia’s offshore sector.
• Lessons from Global Oil Markets – Similar adjustments have occurred in other frontier basins, only for further drilling to later prove commercial viability.

Namibia’s Oil Exploration: Key Findings and Challenges

Namibia’s offshore oil exploration has seen both significant discoveries and disappointments in recent years. Some wells have yielded promising results, while others have come up dry.

Chevron’s Kapano-1X Well: A Dry Hole

In January 2025, Chevron, through its subsidiary Heron Energy, announced that its Kapano-1X well in Block 2813B was a dry hole.

• Location: Near the Venus and Mopane discoveries.
• Significance: While disappointing, Chevron has indicated it remains committed to further exploration.

TotalEnergies’ Venus Discovery: Still the Crown Jewel?

TotalEnergies made headlines in December 2021 with the Venus discovery in Block 293B, hailed as a game-changer for Namibia’s offshore sector.

• Reservoir: High-quality 45 API light oil in deep Cretaceous sands.
• Production Targets:
• Originally projected at 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) but revised down to 150,000 bpd.
• First oil expected by early 2026, utilizing an FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) vessel.
• Challenges:
• Final Investment Decision (FID) delayed from 2024 to late 2025 at the earliest.
• High drilling costs and deepwater challenges require additional assessments before full-scale development.

Tamboti-1X Well: A Partial Success

Another TotalEnergies project, the Tamboti-1X well, targeted a 1-billion-barrel prospect north of Venus.

• Findings:
• Encountered black oil in a 85m hydrocarbon column.
• Low permeability in Cretaceous sands reduces commercial potential.
• Outlook:
• Data is still under review, but results raise concerns about deepwater reservoir quality in Namibia’s Orange Basin.

Future Drilling Plans: High-Impact Wells to Watch in 2025

Despite setbacks, Namibia remains a hotspot for oil exploration, with several high-impact wells scheduled for 2025.

Olympia-1X Well (TotalEnergies, Block 293B)

• Target: Albian sandstones in the Marula Fan Complex.
• Expected Spud Date: Late 2025.

Sagittarius Well (Azule Energy, PEL 85)

• Spud Date: December 19, 2024.
• Location:
• Southeast of Mopane.
• Near the Kudu gas field, which remains Namibia’s primary offshore gas discovery.

2025 Exploration Forecast

• Industry analysts predict 7–10 new offshore wells in Namibia’s Orange Basin in 2025.
• Companies remain optimistic, but reservoir quality and commercial viability remain key concerns.

Upcoming Namibia Oil & Gas Conference: What to Expect

Namibia will host an Oil & Gas Conference from August 12–15, 2025, in Windhoek, bringing together global energy stakeholders to discuss:

• Exploration outcomes and what they mean for Namibia’s future as an oil producer.
• Technology and investment trends in deepwater drilling.
• Government policies to encourage further investment in the sector.

This conference will be crucial in shaping Namibia’s energy policies and investment outlook for the coming years.

Final Thoughts on Namibia’s Oil Prospects

Namibia’s offshore oil industry is in a critical phase. While discoveries like Venus hold great promise, delays in final investment decisions and unexpected disappointments like the Kapano-1X dry hole highlight the uncertainties of deepwater exploration.

What Lies Ahead?

✅ Short-Term: More exploratory drilling to confirm reservoir sizes and commercial viability.
✅ Mid-Term: Possible first production from Venus by 2026, pending TotalEnergies’ investment decision.
✅ Long-Term: If additional wells prove successful, Namibia could emerge as a major oil producer in Africa by the 2030s.

For now, Namibia remains one of the world’s most exciting oil frontiers, but only time—and further drilling—will determine whether it becomes Africa’s next big oil success story.